The 2015 housing forecast by the California Association of Realtors predicts, with more available homes on the market, we will see fewer investors and a return to traditional home buyers as sales rise modestly and prices flatten.
More specifically, C.A.R. is forecasting a 5.8 percent increase in sales to just over 402 thousand units which is up from the 2014 projected sales volume of 380.5 thousand. Both 2015 and 2014 sales are both projected to be less than the 414,300 existing, single family homes sold in 2013.
What most readers are interested in is where prices and interest rates will go in the coming year? According to the C.A.R. forecast home prices are expected to increase 5.2 percent to a California median price of $478,700. This follows an 11.8 percent increase in 2014 to a state median of $445,000. The forecast for interest rates, specifically for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is expected to rise slightly to 4.5 percent which still remains at a historically low level.
In September sales of existing, single family homes totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of just over 396 thousand which is slightly below the 2014 projected total of 400 thousand. September was the 11th straight month sales were below the 400,000 level and the 14th month sales have declined on a year-over-year basis. The sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2014 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home fell 4 percent from August’s price of $480,280 to $460,940 in September. The statewide median home price has been higher on a year-over-year basis for more than two years. Housing inventory was up higher in September, with the available supply increasing from 4 months in August to 4.2 months in September. Mortgage rates in September were up, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 4.16 percent.
